Sales sentiment for electronics components shows bright optimism for Q1 2025 after the glum expectations for December sales performance according to the ECIA North American sales sentiment survey.
With a score that broke solidly above the 100-point threshold in January for the overall component average the year got off to an encouraging start. While the actual score of 108.5 was 6.7 points lower than the forecast from the December survey, it is still a very strong result to start the year.
The index score for Semiconductors was very close to the forecast while the actual score for Electro-Mechanical components was substantially lower than the December outlook.
The January result for Passive components was modestly lower than expected. Once again, the survey respondents provided a robust forecast for the coming month with an overall projection of 120 for February. Less than five points separate the highest and lowest scores for the February projection with Semiconductors projected at 121.9 and Passive components coming in at 117.1 next month.
Distributors reported the most optimistic scores for Passive and Electro-Mechanical components while Manufacturers and Manufacturer Representatives were the most positive in their views of the Semiconductor market. The overall view across the three groups of survey respondents was relatively similar for January and February. Among the component subcategories only Discrete and Analog ICs failed to achieve an average score above 100 in the January actuals. There appears to be solid momentum across all subcategories with every category solidly above 100 in the February forecast. Analog ICs see the lowest score at 106.9 while Capacitors come in at the top with a score of 122.9.
Hopefully, the actual results for February will achieve expectations. Given that the ECST scores reflect month-to-month trends it would be great to have two consecutive months with solid improvements in sales sentiment to start 2025.
The January index score for index markets indicates that the outlook from the December survey exhibited “irrational exuberance.” While the end market sales sentiment was projected to reach 125 in January, it came in 20 points below that. The February outlook for the overall end market index is now aligned with the overall product index at 121. Only four markets achieved scores above 100 in January led by Avionics/Military/Space as it continues to dominate at 131.4.
The outlook for February is much brighter with every market except one projected to come in above 100. Consumer Electronics scored 97.8 in the February outlook. Let’s hope the expectations for February are not as upwardly skewed as they were for January. There were many positive indicators for long-term market health at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES.) Artificial Intelligence dominated every area of the show. Hopefully, the huge investments planned for AI are a leading indicator of new products that will stimulate another wave of growth for electronics in every sector.
