Electronics Supply Chain Weekly Digest 11-7-25.
DATAPOINT OF THE WEEK: S&P reported that the October Eurozone mfg PMI increased to 50.0 from 49.8 in September, hitting a two-month high, as output has risen for the 8th straight month, but demand and new orders remain relatively stagnant, growing at a modest pace.
The inventory cycle is also showing no signs of a turnaround, with companies continuing to reduce stock levels though S&P notes this may be in relation to the current Nexperia situation.
Germany’s mfg PMI also slightly ticked up to 49.6 in October from 49.5 in September on a modest increase in output and new orders, suggesting the recovery remains fragile as macro concerns such as tariffs continue to weigh on outlook. US PMI reached 52.5 in October, up from 52.0 in September, marking the third straight month the PMI is in expansion driven by new orders and outputs growing at increasing rates. Growth does appear to be increasingly reliant on the domestic market as exports declined for the fourth consecutive month and to the greatest degree since July. Contrastingly, ISM reported October US mfg PMI of 48.7, a decline from 49.1 in September as ISM reported that new orders declined for the second straight month.
Headlines:
Auto/Transportation
- BMW flags China as major threat, iX3 series production to start in Hungary, BYD expanding EV and bus output in country
- BYD reported October vehicle sales of ~442k, down 12% Y/Y reflecting growing competition while CPCA preliminary data shows China retail sales grew 6% Y/Y in October
- Ford’s US sales rose 1.6% Y/Y in October to ~176k units, driven by higher demand for pickup trucks
- Ford is reportedly considering canceling the electric F-150 Lightning pickup, according to the WSJ
- Honda has lowered its full-year profit guidance to $3.6B from $4.6B due to a semiconductor shortage and weaker demand in Asia
- India emerges as key auto hub, Toyota, Honda, Suzuki investing $11B to expand production and exports, according to Reuters
- Nissan returns to 2Q profit on cost cuts and stronger NA sales, maintains full-year loss guidance amid chip and tariff challenges
- Car carrier Wallenius Wilhelmsen warned that automakers shipping cars to the US could face $200–$300 per vehicle in extra costs due to higher US port fees on foreign-built ships
- Renault announces plans to launch sub-$23k EV Twingo in 2026, leveraging Chinese engineering and LFP batteries, also offered via Nissan and Dacia
- Rivian beat 3Q revenue expectations with $1.56B, driven by strong deliveries ahead of the US federal EV tax credit expiry
- Tesla CEO Elon Musk said he expects the company’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software to receive full approval in China by February or March next year
- Toyota raised its full-year operating profit forecast to $22.6B, up 6%, citing solid performance outside the US and cost reductions that offset the impact of US import tariffs
- Waymo announced plans to expand its robotaxi service to Las Vegas, San Diego, and Detroit next year, marking its largest rollout to date
Datacenter
- Amazon/AWS to invest $9B in South Korea AI data centers, expanding Ulsan “AI Zone” and new sites by 2031
- OpenAI signs $38B, 7-year AWS deal for Nvidia GPUs, expanding cloud partnerships amid rising AI costs
- China mandates state-funded datacenters to use domestic AI chips, halting foreign chip purchases for projects under 30% complete, according to Reuters
- Google plans to build an AI-focused datacenter on Australia’s remote Christmas Island, says Reuters
- TrendForce has raised its CapEx forecast for the world’s top eight CSPs to 65% Y/Y growth, up from 61%, with total CapEx expected to exceed $600B in 2026
- Microsoft and Abu Dhabi’s G42 announced a 200MW datacenter expansion in the UAE, as part of Microsoft’s over $15B investment in the country
- Super Micro missed quarterly profit and revenue estimates due to delayed AI server shipments, with about $1.5B in revenue shifted to the Dec-Q
Semiconductors
- AMD beats 3Q on datacenter CPU strength, 4Q guided higher on server CPU growth, AI GPU inflection expected in 2H26
- The global IoT market is forecast to grow from $547B in 2025 to $865B by 2030, a CAGR of 9.6%, driven by connectivity, 5G, and digital transformation, according to MarketsandMarkets
- Global semiconductor sales reached $208.4B in 3Q25, up 15.8% Q/Q, driven by strong demand across memory and logic products, according to the SIA
- Microchip 2Q sales beat at $1.14B on datacenter, aerospace, and defense demand, 3Q guided $1.13B with momentum from bookings, expedited orders, and inventory normalization
- Nexperia resumes automotive chip shipments from China, easing Netherlands dispute; Aumovio, Honda, and Bosch see deliveries, production restarts planned, says Bloomberg and Reuters
- Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang warned that China is poised to surpass the US in the AI race
- The Trump administration confirmed that Nvidia will not be allowed to sell its most advanced AI chip, Blackwell, to China at this time
- onsemi reported 3Q revenue of $1.55B, above expectations driven by strong AI demand, while automotive customers remained cautious amid weak EV demand in Europe and NA
- Qualcomm beat expectations in 4Q, reporting $11.27B in sales driven by a surge in consumers upgrading to premium smartphones to run AI apps
- Global silicon wafer shipments rose 3.1% Y/Y to 3,313M square inches in 3Q25, though they fell 0.4% Q/Q, reflecting softness in epitaxial wafer recovery, according to SEMI
- Tesla outlines AI5 production plans, small-scale in 2026, high-volume in 2027, AI6 to double performance by mid-2028, chips optimized for efficiency and Tesla software
- VW/Horizon developing China-designed SoC for L3+ autonomous driving, targeting 500–700 TOPS, delivery 2028–2030, supporting “in China, for China” strategy
Consumer/Other
- Brazilian rare earths producer Serra Verde has secured up to $465M in funding from the US to upgrade its Pela Ema mine in Goiás, Brazil, according to Bloomberg
- China is planning a new rare earth licensing system that could speed up shipments but is unlikely to fully lift export restrictions, according to Reuters
- Japan and the US announced it will jointly explore rare earth mining near Minamitori Island to counter China’s dominance in these critical materials
